Are Minority Opportunities Reduced by the Changes?

I have a few observations about the magnet enrollment and want to bounce some ideas off of everyone.

First my assumptions:

* There were quite a few applications for the magnet school the day after the initial Teamworks proposal was released. I heard around 150 new applications by someone in the administration -- I believe it was during the first working session after the proposal was announced.

* The majority of the new applicants are primarily from the WL area. Sure, there are probably some others, but I believe it is reasonable to assume that most are from the WL area, because they wanted to attend a school close to them.

* The lottery system for enrollment simply picks randomly from the pool of qualified applicants.

Now, given the above if the applicant pool is 50% minorities before (because we are told minorities are well represented currently) and the waiting list is approximately 150 (a number I heard from the administration) then we could approximate that 75 applicants are minorities.

We know that Weaver Lake families are not typically heavily representative of minorities. Let's give them the benefit of the doubt and say that they have a minority rate of 20% (Similar to the number indicated as the percent of minorities currently attending WL -- although we know that more minorities come from open enrollment, but we will give them the benefit of the doubt here.).

If this is the case, then let's say there was a rush of new applicants and we hit 150. Of those 150, minorities would more than likely represent around 20% or 30 students. Let's add them up now:

Minority pool: 75 (previously) + 30 (from WL applicants) = 105
Non-minority pool: 75 (previously) + 120 (from WL applicants) = 195
Total pool of applicants: 300

Before the minority population was 50% of the waiting list -- this may be high, but work with me here. I think it is safe to say that the number of minority applications prior to moving to WL is probably higher. So, after moving the percent of minorities is only 35% (105 minorities divided by 300 total applicants).

So, minorities went from representing 50% of the applicant pool potentially down to 35% in just a few days. Wow. If pulled randomly, the number of minorities will plummet.

Are we not actually reducing opportunities for minorities by moving the magnet program?

If moved, the magnet school will eventually look very similar to WL's current population as more and more neighborhood students apply to go there.

Ok, so this entire line of reasoning is probably flawed in a million ways, but if it is correct, then the School Board and Superintendent are actually taking opportunities away from minorities, which is very sad.

Something similar to this happened in Los Angeles. The magnet schools were put in neighborhoods that really didn't need them. Then, everyone in the neighborhoods applied. Soon, it was considered a private school attended by those that did not need it and funded by the public education system.

Just some thoughts. Go ahead and rip them apart. :)

[Edited: Removed the reference to Pat Brink. I believe the number was shared during the first working session after the proposal announcement.]